A recent study from the Policy Institue at King’s College says figures show crime on most measures is falling but many members of the public think its getting worse
Most people think crime is on the rise in England and Wales – but by most measures it is falling.
A recent new study from the Policy Institute at King’s College London shows the public overestimates how many people are victims of crime.
Most people assume the majority of people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority background and think police numbers have fallen sharply. They also believe that most people do not feel safe walking along in their area after dark.
But the King’s College study finds that these perceptions are wide of the mark.
Based on two surveys of 1,797 and 2,164 UK adults, carried out with YouGov between 23 and 27 March 2026, Wrongful convictions? Misperceptions about crime among the UK public finds that mistaken beliefs about crime cross political party boundaries.
“Asked what share of the population in England and Wales personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025, the public’s median guess is 27% – almost three times the reality of 9.7%.
“Of five crime types tested, only shoplifting has actually risen since 2010 (up around 70%) – and the public gets that one right (84%).
“On every other measure, perception and reality point in opposite directions: 83% think mobile phone theft has risen when it has fallen by around 70%; majorities think domestic burglary (56%) and vehicle theft (62%) have risen when both have fallen by around 50%; and 37% think murder has risen when it is down around 20%.”
In London, figures from the Met police and Greater London Authority show neighbourhood crime has fallen by 15% over the past year.
The fall was driven by declines in theft, personal robbery and burglary, particularly in central London, where police have stepped up efforts to tackle phone snatching and street crime.
Earlier in 2026 Met figures showed the number of homicides in the capital had fallen to the lowest level in a decade.
The King’s College study shows that misperceptions about crime are not confined to one party, “but there is a consistent gradient, with Reform supporters the clearest outliers.”
“Reform UK supporters most underestimate the share of people convicted of homicide who are white (guess: 30%; reality: 64%), and most overestimate the share who are from ethnic minorities (guess: 70%; reality: 35%).”
These misconceptions guide attitudes to institutions and what should be done about crime. They lead to fear and distrust “among those who say their quality of life is highly affected by fear of crime”.
Some 59% of those surveyed wrongly think murder has risen in England and 35% of the public overall say they have no confidence at all in the government to deal with crime.
Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute says the public are very wrong about crime .
“They think the risk is higher than it is, that everything is getting worse when many aspects are improving, and that police numbers have fallen when they’ve actually risen.”